- Elliotte Friedman relayed a 2026-27 prediction that Erik Karlsson ends up a Maple Leaf
- The pitch leans on Toronto’s Swedish pipeline, with Mats Sundin and Daniel Alfredsson already in the building
- Read below for the full Friedman quote, the Kyle Dubas history and where Karlsson’s contract sits
Erik Karlsson in a Toronto Maple Leafs sweater is a sentence people are now saying out loud.
Elliotte Friedman brought a 2026-27 prediction to the latest episode of 32 Thoughts: The Podcast, one handed to him by a source he did not name. He was running through his summer theories when he passed it along.
“So one guy said to me, says, ‘I have a 2026-27 prediction for you.’ I said, ‘Okay, what is it?’ And he goes, ‘Depending on how both teams’ seasons go, my prediction is Erik Karlsson becomes a Toronto Maple Leaf.’”
Here’s the episode:
Friedman said the person who called it framed Karlsson as the next name in a very specific Toronto line: “Mats Sundin, Daniel Alfredsson, Erik Karlsson, Toronto.”
That grouping is not random. Sundin works in the Leafs front office as senior executive adviser of hockey operations, and Alfredsson took over as associate coach on Jim Hiller’s staff in July after three seasons as an assistant in Ottawa.
Then Friedman talked himself partway out of it. He pointed out that Karlsson is coming off a strong year and that Pittsburgh keeps beating its projections.
“If Pittsburgh has another good year like they did last year, and Karlsson plays like he did, I don’t know that I see him getting traded at all.”
The other thread here is the man running the Penguins. Friedman noted that Kyle Dubas chased Karlsson once before, from a different chair.
“Kyle Dubas has never really told the full story, as far as I know. But when he was GM of the Leafs, he tried to trade for Karlsson at one point. And he did do it, obviously, in Pittsburgh. He’s always liked him.”
Karlsson put up 66 points in 75 games last season, with 15 goals, 51 assists and a plus-8 rating. That’s his best output since the 101-point year in San Jose that won him a third Norris Trophy in 2023.
He turned 36 in May and is entering the final season of the eight-year, $92 million deal he signed with the Sharks. San Jose retains $1.5 million of it, so Pittsburgh carries a $10 million cap hit and any trade partner would have to solve that number first.
Pittsburgh already has plenty to sort through before it gets anywhere near selling. Evgeni Malkin has said he wants one more year, and the Penguins are handing the crease to a group of young goalies.
Play like they did last season and Friedman’s guest is wrong by March.
