- Cale Makar opens as the 2026-27 Norris Trophy favorite at +275
- The last 18 votes have not produced the same winner in consecutive seasons
- Read below for the full top 10 and the names sitting just outside it
Cale Makar opens the 2026-27 season as the clear Norris Trophy favorite at +275, the shortest number on the board by a comfortable margin.
Matt Larkin of Daily Faceoff, a PHWA voter, put the Avalanche defenseman first on his top 10 and did not spend long explaining why. Two Norrises, a Conn Smythe, a Cup, and offense that never dries up.
Larkin’s read is simple. When Makar has a solid defensive year, he wins, because the scoring is a given. He has taken the trophy or been a finalist in six of his seven NHL seasons, and he just became the first $20 million player in league history.
Take a look at 10 minutes of why Colorado paid him:
Quinn Hughes sits second at +400 heading into his first full season in Minnesota. He piled up 53 points in 48 games after last year’s trade, averaged better than 27 minutes a night, and posted the best 5-on-5 expected goal share of his career alongside Brock Faber.
He also still has no extension, which Larkin thinks only sharpens the motivation. Watch what he and Kirill Kaprizov did to the West last spring:
Zach Werenski is the reigning winner and lands fourth at +550. He took 113 of 198 first-place votes in June, 66 more than Makar, and became the first Blue Jackets defenseman to win the thing.
Working against him: nobody repeats anymore. Since Nicklas Lidstrom won six in seven years, the past 18 votes have all produced a different name.
Here’s the moment Werenski got handed the trophy:
Matthew Schaefer is the wild card at +1500. His 23 goals as an 18-year-old tied Brian Leetch’s rookie record for defensemen, and he graded out above average defensively against top competition while doing it.
The full top 10, with bet365 odds:
- 1. Cale Makar, Avalanche (+275)
- 2. Quinn Hughes, Wild (+400)
- 3. Lane Hutson, Canadiens (+1000)
- 4. Zach Werenski, Blue Jackets (+550)
- 5. Rasmus Dahlin, Sabres (+700)
- 6. Evan Bouchard, Oilers (+1100)
- 7. Matthew Schaefer, Islanders (+1500)
- 8. Moritz Seider, Red Wings (+1100)
- 9. Jake Sanderson, Senators (+3300)
- 10. Miro Heiskanen, Stars (+2500)
Bouchard is the odd one out at sixth despite leading every defenseman in the NHL with 95 points, 14 clear of Werenski. Larkin argues the highlight-reel gaffes have buried a player whose opponents managed just 43.75 percent of the scoring chances at 5-on-5 with him on the ice.
Hutson at third is the other line worth staring at. Two seasons in, he already has 66- and 78-point years, and Larkin expects the mid-80s next.
Names outside the 10 include Jackson LaCombe, Charlie McAvoy, Adam Fox, Josh Morrissey, Shea Theodore, Mikhail Sergachev, Roman Josi, Victor Hedman and Brandt Clarke. Our Rocket Richard breakdown covers the other end of the ice.
Makar is the favorite for a reason. The trend that has knocked off every defending winner for 18 straight years is the only thing standing in his way.
