- James Mirtle says Celebrini’s five-year deal marks the end of max-term contracts for young NHL stars
- Executives and agents expect the salary cap to reach $150M to $160M by 2031-32
- Read below for the cap math and what it sets up for Bedard, Fantilli and Schaefer
The eight-year contract is going out of style at the top of the NHL.
James Mirtle of The Athletic reported Friday that Macklin Celebrini’s five-year extension with the Sharks is the start of a trend rather than a one-off. Mirtle expects five-year terms to become the standard for the league’s rising young stars, and the reasoning has nothing to do with commitment.
It comes down to where the salary cap is going.
NHL cap projections currently run only through 2027-28. Mirtle says every executive and agent he has spoken with expects a steep climb starting in 2028, landing somewhere between $150 million and $160 million by 2031-32.
That math turns a record contract into a discount. Celebrini’s $18.8 million cap hit would be roughly 12 percent of the ceiling in the final year of his deal. The maximum allowable salary under a $150 million cap is $30 million.
Term is shrinking on the CBA side too. Beginning Sept. 16, teams can re-sign their own players for seven years instead of eight, and unrestricted free agents top out at six.
Connor Bedard already made the same call in Chicago. He and Celebrini, two friends out of North Vancouver, now sit on matching five-year term with very different price tags:
Bedard has 203 points in 219 games at $15 million a season. Celebrini has 178 in 152 and carries the $18.8 million tag, which is the highest in league history.
Neither one has to live with that number into his 30s. Both hit the market again before they turn 26, with a much bigger cap waiting.
Sharks GM Mike Grier said this week that Celebrini could have pushed for the full 20 percent maximum and chose not to, which gave San Jose room to keep building. Here is Grier on how the negotiation landed:
Adam Fantilli and Leo Carlsson are the next young forwards due, and Matthew Schaefer’s first extension on Long Island is the one everybody is watching. If Mirtle is right, none of those agents will be asking for the longest deal on the table.
