Erik Karlsson Trade Buzz: Senators, Maple Leafs Floated as Fits

Erik Karlsson’s run in Pittsburgh looks like it has an end date, and the rumor mill already has two Canadian teams pegged as his next stop.

Josh Yohe of The Athletic fielded a question about the defenseman’s future in his July 20 Penguins mailbag, and he didn’t dance around it.

“I’d be surprised if they give Erik Karlsson a new deal after this season, despite his brilliance,” Yohe said.

Jimmy Murphy of RG Media went a step further and put two Canadian teams on the board. He thinks Karlsson gets moved to Ottawa or Toronto before the 2026-27 season even opens.

Karlsson carries a $10 million cap hit through this coming season and becomes an unrestricted free agent in July 2027. He turns 37 next May, so any new contract would start with him already on the wrong side of that number.

Yohe laid out two paths for the season. If Pittsburgh hangs around the playoff race, he expects the Penguins to keep Karlsson past the March deadline and lose him for nothing. If they fall out of it, a midseason trade becomes the obvious move.

The player is still producing. Karlsson put up 15 goals and 51 assists for 66 points in 75 games last season, his best output in three years with the Penguins, and he won his third Norris Trophy in 2023 after a 101-point year in San Jose.

Cap math is where it gets messy. Toronto sits roughly $2.7 million over the ceiling right now, as Lyle Richardson pointed out, and Pittsburgh has no reason to retain salary to make a rival’s summer easier. Ottawa has a little more room, but the Senators look more like a deadline shopper than a team clearing $10 million in July.

Kyle Dubas gave up a haul for Karlsson in the three-team blockbuster back in August 2023, then spent this summer tinkering around the edges. He’ll have north of $70 million in cap space next July to find the replacement.