- Elliotte Friedman says the Lightning are now the heavy favorites to land John Carlson in free agency
- Most people around the league would be surprised if Carlson signed anywhere but Tampa
- Read below for the contract math, the Raddysh connection and how Carlson fits next to Victor Hedman
John Carlson’s free agency might be over before it even opens.
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman said on the 32 Thoughts podcast that the Tampa Bay Lightning are the runaway favorites to sign the veteran defenseman once he hits the open market on July 1.
Friedman was breaking down Tampa’s blue line when he spelled out where Carlson is most likely to land.
“As a matter of fact, most people seem to think they would be surprised if John Carlson doesn’t end up in Tampa. He’s likely to go to the Lightning on a short-term deal for big dollars.”
The Lightning opened up that hole themselves. They shipped Darren Raddysh to Toronto in a sign-and-trade last week, and now they need someone to eat those minutes on the right side.
Carlson brings a longer track record than Raddysh, and he can still move the puck.
See Carlson’s first career hat trick from back in April:
The money is where this gets interesting. Pierre LeBrun reported Carlson is using a two-year, $20 million deal as his baseline. Friedman thinks the average annual value could climb even higher than Raddysh’s $8.5 million if the term stays short.
Tampa has the room to make it work. PuckPedia has the Lightning sitting around $13.2 million in cap space, and they only have two right-handed defensemen signed for next season in Erik Cernak and Maxwell Crozier.
That opens the door for a top pairing of Carlson and Victor Hedman.
There is a fit beyond hockey, too. Carlson already told Anaheim he wasn’t coming back, and the 36-year-old wants to play in the East where his family is settled. A move to Florida checks that box.
He is coming off a 60-point season (14 goals, 46 assists) in 71 games split between Washington and Anaheim. Among this summer’s free agents, only one defenseman scored more.
If Friedman has it right, Carlson and Hedman could be skating together by the first week of July.
