- Kalshi’s hockey board has 75 percent betting Dylan Larkin opens the season in Detroit
- Of the people who do expect a trade, 72 percent still pick the Minnesota Wild
- Read below for why the Red Wings and Wild keep missing on a deal
The betting money has turned on a Dylan Larkin trade.
Kevin Allen of Detroit Hockey Now ran through Kalshi’s hockey board this week, and 75 percent of that market says the Red Wings captain opens the season right where he is. Among the people who do expect a move, 72 percent still land on the Minnesota Wild. Philadelphia is the only other team on the board, at two percent.
Kalshi is a prediction market where people buy and sell shares on future events, so the share price works as a rough read on what the crowd believes.
Larkin holds a full no-trade clause from the eight-year, $69.6 million extension he signed in 2023, and he told Detroit he would accept a deal to the Wild, Golden Knights or Panthers. Whether the Dallas Stars belong on that list is still disputed, with conflicting Detroit reports on either side of it.
Detroit and Minnesota already talked this summer and found nothing. The Red Wings were not sold on the young players the Wild were willing to move, and they want at least one proven NHL player coming the other way.
David Pagnotta pointed at that exact sticking point weeks ago:
Cap space is the other wall. Allen cited PuckPedia figures putting the Wild at $1.15 million in room, the Panthers at $34,000, and the Golden Knights $8.66 million over the ceiling. Larkin carries an $8.7 million hit, so somebody is shipping salary out before any version of this works.
His remaining cash is friendlier than the cap number. Helene St. James explained how the contract was built:
One piece has changed since those first Detroit-Minnesota calls. Steve Yzerman is out of the general manager chair and into a senior advisor role, running the day to day until the Wings hire a new head of hockey operations. No candidate has surfaced in that search yet.
Jeff Marek was asked where the Larkin situation sits now that Yzerman has stepped aside:
Minnesota carried the frontrunner label back in July, and the board still agrees on the destination.
That contract runs through 2031, and the Wild remain the likeliest landing spot if this ever gets done. Kalshi bettors just don’t expect the trade before opening night.
