Can Alex Ovechkin Score 1000 Goals? Math Says No (But Maybe)

Wayne Gretzky’s goal record was always seen as unbreakable. And although Alex Ovechkin has been scoring goals at will throughout his illustrious career, probably the vast majority of hockey fans doubted even he could break the record. Well, not only did he break the record, he’s actively crushing it.

With his 3rd goal of the 2025-26 NHL campaign, Ovi scored his 900th career NHL goal, becoming the first player ever to accomplish such a feat. Now, naturally, the question becomes whether he can realistically reach 1000 NHL goals before he hangs up his skates. So, can Ovechkin score that many goals? Let’s break it down.

The Math

First, let’s take a look at the numbers. So far this season, Ovi is off to a slow start—at least by his standards. As I mentioned, he’s currently sitting on just three goals through 15 games played. That’s about a 16-goal pace over 82 games, assuming he stays healthy. That’s a far cry from what we’re used to seeing from the Great 8, as he has averaged 44.85 goals per season throughout his career (excluding the current season).

Even in his worst year statistically, which was the 2023-24 season, he still managed to score 31 goals and record 65 points. That’s right, that was Ovi’s worst season to date—numbers that 90% of the players in the NHL would be thrilled to post. But that just goes to show the standard of this guy’s play over the years. He isn’t used to anything short of elite status.

So, unless Ovi really turns things up a notch and finishes this season with considerably more goals, things look bleak. Let’s break down what it would take:

*Calculations assume Ovi is currently at 900 goals and needs 100 more to reach 1000

Playing until age 44 in today’s NHL is unlikely to be seen. To put this in perspective, Ovi is already currently third on the list of the oldest active NHL players. However, since Ovi is clearly an outlier in so many statistical categories and overall just a freak of nature, let’s humor the idea for a second.

Can He Stay Healthy?

That brings us to our second factor: health. Ovechkin, as we know, is durable—a tank, even. And to this point in his career, Alex Ovechkin has missed an extremely low number of games. It’s quite shocking given how aggressive his style of play has always been, and it’s without a doubt a huge factor in how he has been able to surpass Gretzky’s goal record.

But just how durable has he been? Well, Ovi has played a full 82-game season 4 times in his career, while playing 81 games 3 times. So for nearly a third of his career, Ovi has missed little to no games at all. The Caps have also made the playoffs for most of the time Ovechkin has been with the team, and he has never missed a single playoff game. So you can tack those games on too.

Think about that for a second. We are 21 seasons into Ovi’s career, he currently has 1,506 games played, and has missed just 76. If, for some reason, you weren’t already floored by how many goals this man has scored in his career, surely his durability and longevity in the league must at the very least impress you.

For a detailed breakdown of Ovechkin’s missed games, check out this analysis from Capitals Outsider.

So obviously, it goes without saying that if Ovi were to chase the 1,000-goal milestone, his health would be the ultimate factor at play. But given his impressive track record, there isn’t much concern to be had in that regard.

What Does Ovi Want?

The third question here is arguably the biggest and the most unclear: What is going on in Alex Ovechkin’s head?

At this point, we unfortunately do not have much information to work with. Ovi is currently in the final season of his 5-year, $47.5M deal that he signed back in July of 2021. There is no concrete evidence from the man himself, his agent, or the Washington Capitals as to whether he will sign another contract beyond this season. That hasn’t stopped the media from trying to get an answer out of the legendary goal scorer, but it’s largely been cliché responses.

There’s been a ton of speculation, but not even so much as a hint from the Ovechkin camp one way or the other. Everything is under tight wraps, sounding like a case of “wait and see” after this final contract season concludes.

Success This Season Is the Key

Personally, I think how this season plays out for the Capitals—and more specifically, Alex Ovechkin himself—will play a massive role in where things go from here. Everyone knows how competitive Ovi has always been. Everyone knows how dominant he’s been, specifically at putting the puck in the back of the net. But we’re not really seeing that from him so far this season.

As I already mentioned, he’s currently on pace for a measly 16 goals this season unless things turn around drastically and fast. That would be one of the biggest falls from grace we’ve ever seen, let alone for the greatest goal scorer this sport has ever known. And if that were to be the case, such an underwhelming season statistically might be the final nail in the coffin. It’s because of Ovi’s competitive nature that such production would probably cause him to call it quits for good.

The other factor is the Washington Capitals as a whole. Last season, the Caps not only won their division, but they also clinched the Eastern Conference. They were dominant across the board, and a large part of that was thanks to Alex Ovechkin putting up crazy numbers. But like Ovi’s production so far this year, the Caps are off to a slow start and look like a shell of that dominant regular-season team we saw just a season ago.

At the end of the day, nobody knows what Alex Ovechkin is thinking. Quite frankly, the man himself might not know which way he’s leaning either. There are clearly numerous factors at play here, but all we can do is speculate until the time comes in the offseason when a decision must be made.

The Bottom Line

So, can Alex Ovechkin really get 1,000 goals? Well, technically yes, he really could. However, he would have to maintain a standard of play well into his 40s, which would not be easy by any means. And things are not looking good in that respect so far this season. Unless Ovi really turns it around this season—and fast—not only will we likely not see him get close to 1,000 goals, we also probably won’t even see him suit up again next season.

To me, it all comes down to how this year plays out. Unfortunately, 900 goals will probably be the final milestone that Ovechkin ever hits. But one can argue that every goal he has scored from 895 onward is a milestone in its own right. And in that case, we are all witnesses to historic milestones every single time he lights the lamp in his career.

If this really is the final season we have the privilege of witnessing Alexander Ovechkin—the greatest goal scorer of all time—play in this league, we better watch with close eyes. We better enjoy every last possible remaining second of his playing days. Because we may never see another goal-scoring feat like this again in our lifetimes.